Following up to my post from a few weeks back on the general trends of the resale housing market in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), I wanted to take a bit of a deeper dive into the neighbourhoods of Toronto with the following article.
Below is a map of the neighbourhoods (called “municipalities” by TREB) in Toronto that I will be referring to throughout this article. You can view the interactive map here.
First up is a chart showing how all the neighbourhoods in terms of dwelling values have performed since 1996 (indexed to 1996, and from lowest to highest shown). The City Average shows dwelling value growth rate of approximately 400% (or 13% annually) since 1996 (not accounted for inflation).
To give you a sense of the price divergence between the worst and best performing neighbourhoods, I’ve charted out North York Centre East (C14) and Leslieville-Riverdale (E01), shown immediately below, as well as provided two charts that show the 5 lowest and highest growers relative to the city average.
An important caveat to note here – some neighbourhoods such as the North York Centre’s (C07 and C14), Yonge-Eglinton (C10), and the Downtowns (C01 and C08) may show relatively lower dwelling value growth to 2019, and it is largely because the majority of transactions in those neighbourhoods are condos, which are priced lower than ground-related homes and have appreciated in value less since 1996. A good way of highlighting such a trend is to compare Yonge-Eglinton (C10) to adjacent neighbourhoods such as Forest Hill-Oakwood (C03) and Yonge-Lawrence (C04), as shown below.
Over the last 10 years, condo sales in Yonge-Eglinton accounted for about 60% to 70% of total dwelling sales, compared to about 20% to 30% for Yonge-Lawrence and Forest Hill-Oakwood. When you further unpack the data and measure annual appreciation by dwelling type, ground-related housing (singles, semis, towns, rows) in all three neighbourhoods has appreciated by virtually the same rate since 1996 (as shown in the chart below).
The three highest growth neighbourhoods since 1996 are all next to one another, and they are – Leslieville-Riverdale (E01), East York-O’Connor (E03) and the Beaches (E02).
The next chart shows changes in dwelling values by neighbourhood between 2009 and 2019 (indexed to 2009).
Although at first glance there appears to be an interesting mix of neighbourhoods occupying the top spots since 2009, Rosedale-Moore Park (C09), Rockcliffe-Smythe-Rogers (W03), East York-O’Connor (E03) and Leslieville-Riverdale (E01) all experienced some of the highest apprecitation since 1996 as well. On the other side of the chart are neighbourhoods such as Wilson Heights (C06), Etobicoke Centre (W08) and Bayview Village-Parkway Forest-Don Valley (C15), which experienced below city average growth since both 1996 and 2009.
The next charts shows changes in dwelling values by neighbourhood since April 2017 (Indexed to April 2017).
Interesting findings include:
- As of May 2019, Toronto’s average dwelling price is almost back at its April 2017 peak
- Price appreciation in the Downtowns (C01 and C08) can be attributed to the continued growth in condo values.
- The three highest growth neighbourhoods since 1996 (Beaches (E02), Leslieville-Riverdale (E01) and East York-O’Connor (E03)) have all exhibited great stability since April 2017
Below I show how resale dwelling prices in two different neighbourhoods, Don Mills (C13) and Mimico-Long Branch (W06), have performed since April 2017, along with the 5 worst and best performers. Dwelling values in Mimico-Long Branch have grown by roughly 20% since 2017, while Don Mills is experiencing about a 33% deterioration in values.
Finally I want to chart out the average length of days a home stays on the market and the months of inventory historically to get a sense of sales levels strength by neighbourhood.
The first chart below shows months of inventory for 6 year periods starting from 1996.
Months of inventory is derived by dividing the active listings by the total number of sales in a given month to determine, hypothetically, how long it would take to sell all the homes currently on the market (if no other houses were to come on to the market).
What is most fascinating about the chart below is that the period with the second lowest level of months of inventory (on average) was between 1996 and 2001, while the most recent 5 year period unsurprisingly shows the lowest level of months of inventory. The neighbourhoods with the lowest levels of months of inventory on average include Beaches (E02), Leslieville-Riverdale (E01) and East York-O’Connor (E03) – which were also the best performing neighbourhoods in terms of rate of price appreciation since 1996. Months of inventory appears to be highest in some of the wealthiest neighbourhoods and most impoverished ones.
The final chart below shows the average days a home stays on the market before it is sold (or removed off the market). Once again, the infamous trio – Beaches (E02), Leslieville-Riverdale (E01) and East York-O’Connor (E03) take top spot. Following this group is (like the previous chart) Yonge-Eglinton (C10), Bloor West Village (C15) and Sunnylea-Queensway (W07). On the other side of the chart are generally the same neighbourhoods that also exhibit higher levels of months of inventory. What is also clearly evident in the chart is the decline in the number of days a home stays on the market in Toronto over the years. The number of days a home stays on the market today compared to the period between 1996 and 2001 has been halved.
Overall key takeaways:
- As of May 2019, Toronto average dwelling prices have virtually reached their peak 2017 levels
- Some of the neighbourhoods to have bought in that exhibit the highest growth rates and generally strong sales levels include the infamous trio of Beaches (E02), Leslieville-Riverdale (E01) and East York-O’Connor (E03)
- Homes in Toronto on average are spending about half the time on the market over the last 6 years compared to the period between 1996 and 2001
- Months of inventory shows greater stability throughout the years compared to days spent on the market, but the last 6 years show strengthened sales levels, with about 1.9 months of inventory – meaning that of 19 homes that are actively listed in any given month, 10 sold